Search found 292 matches

by Dr Positivity
Tue Dec 18, 2018 3:28 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2018-19 season commentary
Replies: 353
Views: 116038

Re: 2018-19 season commentary

I agree that Doncic is more like a league average player right now than a star already. He still has a chance to become a superstar though - just look at Lebron or Durant's rookie seasons, volume scoring but weak advanced stats. A season like Mitchell's last year which wasn't that great in any way b...
by Dr Positivity
Sat Dec 08, 2018 8:53 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2018-19 season commentary
Replies: 353
Views: 116038

Re: 2018-19 season commentary

I have not watched the most Suns games this year but I hear Ayton is very bad on defense, like Kanter-ing. 0.9 blks per 36 and 53rd for centers in DRPM. Reading some Suns message boards, instead of the usual homerism hyping up young prospects, many are complaining about his lack of consistent effort
by Dr Positivity
Fri Nov 30, 2018 4:30 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2018-19 season commentary
Replies: 353
Views: 116038

Re: 2018-19 season commentary

In general I think people over value form on shots, and I think that's what happened with Knox. He looks like a pretty good shooter, but he just doesn't make a high %. Obviously some time to improve. -8.1 BPM is egregious. He looked like the bust pick of the lotto to me. Taking a project with medio...
by Dr Positivity
Mon Nov 19, 2018 6:16 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Options with the Wizards
Replies: 4
Views: 3911

Re: Options with the Wizards

I've seen some Wizards fans claim he has a personal friendship with Ted Leonsis, and Abe Pollin was also high on the positive and communicative environment he brought. Kind of the reverse Sam Hinkie where the basketball strategy isn't there, but has much better people skills
by Dr Positivity
Sat Nov 17, 2018 8:52 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Options with the Wizards
Replies: 4
Views: 3911

Re: Options with the Wizards

After 15 years of Ernie Grunfeld you know what you're getting, keeping him is just committing to mediocrity
by Dr Positivity
Tue Nov 06, 2018 10:22 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Fixing the Lakers
Replies: 6
Views: 4424

Re: Fixing the Lakers

Hard situation. Lebron's impact is on the way down and they don't have enough good players around him anyways. Trading Ingram for Butler could be a good idea. Ball has potential if he can be a guard who defends, shoots 40% 3, passes and rebounds, even if low volume scorer. Hart can also grow into 3 ...
by Dr Positivity
Tue Oct 23, 2018 9:58 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2018-19 season commentary
Replies: 353
Views: 116038

Re: 2018-19 season commentary

oDoncic, bottom 20% of league on BPM at a vey low -6.4. Very weak on other published overall metrics. Waiting on RPM estimate and RAPM factors. On usage amped PER, he is still just an 11, well below average. Doncic had a bad first game, if just looking at the last two I'm sure his stats would be be...
by Dr Positivity
Tue Oct 23, 2018 9:40 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Suns 2013-18 retrospective
Replies: 1
Views: 2976

Re: Suns 2013-18 retrospective

Going back a little further than 2013 I think the Suns messed up too many draft picks this decade. Bender and Chriss draft is catastrophic for having 4 and 8, both decline rookie option level. Len a bust at 5. Marshall, Ennis busts at 13 and 18. Jackson and Ayton tbd. Booker puts up stats but real v...
by Dr Positivity
Fri Oct 05, 2018 5:04 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: TWolves advice
Replies: 4
Views: 2498

Re: TWolves advice

1. Trade Wiggins
2. Trade Wiggins
by Dr Positivity
Sat Sep 22, 2018 8:21 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Estimated non boxscore RPM value
Replies: 3
Views: 3560

Re: Estimated non boxscore RPM value

I am working with a 20 year RAPM dataset (1997-2017) to develop a new BPM formulation. With a pure linear statistical plus minus, here are the residuals: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1IcYySAnIZNhSAdy3mM7OtKjeaoWA8tBGLNiJs5HtBUo/edit?usp=sharing A negative residual would indicate the playe...
by Dr Positivity
Wed Sep 19, 2018 12:21 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Estimated non boxscore RPM value
Replies: 3
Views: 3560

Estimated non boxscore RPM value

A little project I did. I take PER or WS/48 and created an "expected RPM", on a scale that makes 9 RPM equivalent to 30 PER and .300 WS/48. Then the real RPM is subtracted from it to create the difference. The attempt is to estimate how much a player's RPM is affected by non boxscore production. For...
by Dr Positivity
Wed Sep 12, 2018 8:18 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Shining guys up for trades
Replies: 2
Views: 2057

Re: Shining guys up for trades

Hinkie might have tried this with the Sixers fast pace at the time. I almost feel like MCW's ROY was by design taking an older player who would have the ball all game. But he didn't cash out early enough on him. Maybe ownership got in the way?
by Dr Positivity
Sun Jul 08, 2018 5:49 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: LV Summer League
Replies: 3
Views: 3216

Re: LV Summer League

Zizic looks better than some lotto Intl picks like Bender and Frank. Not a surprise to me at all. After a string of numbers-friendly center prospects like Jokic, Nurkic, Gobert, Capela, Zizic being his draft's numbers friendly center looked like a good call to be the next version In my opinion the b...
by Dr Positivity
Wed Jun 27, 2018 8:08 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Morey & Presti
Replies: 2
Views: 3432

Re: Morey & Presti

Presti is a great drafter but with trades, free agents, etc. it's no contest for me in Morey's favor, and the Rockets are set up to have a chance at a title for a while. I don't think Presti has done a great job at all outside of drafting, with obvious non-analytics moves like going all in on Waiter...
by Dr Positivity
Wed Jun 27, 2018 7:19 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Undrafted Gems Still Available
Replies: 5
Views: 3769

Re: Undrafted Gems Still Available

I’m sure some of the guys left on my list fit the bonzie Colson mould, in terms of they are an undersized big when you do the eye test. I did try to identify this in the model with certain offense statistics and physical attributes that are traits of someone who can play as a versatile wing. Though...