APBRmetrics

Ranked on RMSE and including some entries not in the official contest. https://i.imgur.com/XDACgyj.png The 538 number looks completely different between ours - I have them performing extremely poorly while you have them near the top. Mine are pulled from Oct. 18 - any chance yours are a different da...

been a while since i've updated... https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yYvBXuN1_XUF0hmHpojPL3IOH861z2U9/ https://i.imgur.com/wdeS3Pn.png of course some difference from mike g's tracking but it looks like the various live projection models are converging - brooklyn, boston, and cleveland seem to ...

another update: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... OH861z2U9/



charts: https://imgur.com/a/AHkBy4W

since we're still very early in the season, the fact that BPI knew the outcome of those first two games is very impactful by the end of the season, i would guess the value of 2 games worth of information to the final RMSE will be an improvement of about 0.1-0.2 - still valuable, but not quite as muc...

i've updated this sheet as well: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yYvBXuN1_XUF0hmHpojPL3IOH861z2U9/edit using the average of TeamRankings, BPI, Bk-Ref, and 538 current projections to estimate aside from the late BPI entry, caliban and shadow (along with the "Average") as usual are a...

bookmaker is actually a sportsbook

i had it readily available so i just used that

will be tracking these entries and others I've seen on twitter at this link: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yYvBXuN1_XUF0hmHpojPL3IOH861z2U9/ (please correct me if i made a data entry error) right now, the "current projection" is just the average of all but will add in updated pro...

https://i.imgur.com/ZifXXKL.png the various projections are becoming pretty consistent now - bk-ref still has a few outliers such as gsw/hou where the exclusion of information outside this season makes them a little more pessimistic than average 538 also has a few divergent expectations relative to...

Thanksgiving Update https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1iPOzcrhgF-9FCfasdjQs8eKZZg9ZS84NhfIwFv_wPes/ Rank Entry MAE 1 tarrazu 3.70 2 bbstats 3.78 3 Pinnacle (No Juice) 3.79 4 Average 3.97 5 shadow 3.99 6 caliban 4.00 7 sndesai1 4.04 8 ESPN BPI 4.06 9 eminence 4.07 10 RyanRiot 4.08 11 Jinxed 4.10...

bk-ref projections are ok for regular season wins after a couple months, but there's no informed prior. all that it really seems to use is a team's current srs regressed towards 0 and the remaining schedule, which leads to odd projections early on. At what point in the season is current SRS + remai...

i have no pref. let's just say whichever has the most support by sunday is the primary metric for the contest it's currently MAE-2, RMSE-0 bk-ref projections are ok for regular season wins after a couple months, but there's no informed prior. all that it really seems to use is a team's current srs r...

Very early rankings https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1iPOzcrhgF-9FCfasdjQs8eKZZg9ZS84NhfIwFv_wPes/ Rank Entry RMSE 1 Average 2.48 2 bbstats 2.49 3 Jinxed 2.84 4 RyanRiot 2.94 5 tarrazu 3.04 6 caliban 3.05 7 sndesai1 3.06 8 jgoldstein34 3.11 9 538 3.17 10 eminence 3.29 11 shadow 3.34 12 Kevin P...

yeah, those are good power rankings and could probably be turned into a solid projection (though major injuries/recoveries wouldn't be properly accounted for, just like most other team rating based projections) bbstats has also put this together: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1T97ny0JuEschn...

isn't the easiest approach to use the 2 teams playing as the predictors and the # of possessions as the dependent and then just do a basic linear regression?

it would definitely be nice to have, but the gap between pace and opp-adj pace should be significantly less than it is for college