Search found 133 matches

by sndesai1
Sun Dec 16, 2018 4:55 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2018-19 team win projection contest
Replies: 154
Views: 128905

Re: 2018-19 team win projection contest

https://i.imgur.com/ZifXXKL.png the various projections are becoming pretty consistent now - bk-ref still has a few outliers such as gsw/hou where the exclusion of information outside this season makes them a little more pessimistic than average 538 also has a few divergent expectations relative to...
by sndesai1
Thu Nov 22, 2018 9:44 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2018-19 team win projection contest
Replies: 154
Views: 128905

Re: 2018-19 team win projection contest

Thanksgiving Update https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1iPOzcrhgF-9FCfasdjQs8eKZZg9ZS84NhfIwFv_wPes/ Rank Entry MAE 1 tarrazu 3.70 2 bbstats 3.78 3 Pinnacle (No Juice) 3.79 4 Average 3.97 5 shadow 3.99 6 caliban 4.00 7 sndesai1 4.04 8 ESPN BPI 4.06 9 eminence 4.07 10 RyanRiot 4.08 11 Jinxed 4.10...
by sndesai1
Sat Nov 03, 2018 6:01 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2018-19 team win projection contest
Replies: 154
Views: 128905

Re: 2018-19 team win projection contest

bk-ref projections are ok for regular season wins after a couple months, but there's no informed prior. all that it really seems to use is a team's current srs regressed towards 0 and the remaining schedule, which leads to odd projections early on. At what point in the season is current SRS + remai...
by sndesai1
Sat Nov 03, 2018 1:33 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2018-19 team win projection contest
Replies: 154
Views: 128905

Re: 2018-19 team win projection contest

i have no pref. let's just say whichever has the most support by sunday is the primary metric for the contest it's currently MAE-2, RMSE-0 bk-ref projections are ok for regular season wins after a couple months, but there's no informed prior. all that it really seems to use is a team's current srs r...
by sndesai1
Sat Oct 27, 2018 6:11 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2018-19 team win projection contest
Replies: 154
Views: 128905

Re: 2018-19 team win projection contest

Very early rankings https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1iPOzcrhgF-9FCfasdjQs8eKZZg9ZS84NhfIwFv_wPes/ Rank Entry RMSE 1 Average 2.48 2 bbstats 2.49 3 Jinxed 2.84 4 RyanRiot 2.94 5 tarrazu 3.04 6 caliban 3.05 7 sndesai1 3.06 8 jgoldstein34 3.11 9 538 3.17 10 eminence 3.29 11 shadow 3.34 12 Kevin P...
by sndesai1
Sat Oct 27, 2018 12:31 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2018-19 team win projection contest
Replies: 154
Views: 128905

Re: 2018-19 team win projection contest

yeah, those are good power rankings and could probably be turned into a solid projection (though major injuries/recoveries wouldn't be properly accounted for, just like most other team rating based projections) bbstats has also put this together: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1T97ny0JuEschn...
by sndesai1
Sat Oct 27, 2018 12:25 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Opponent-adjusted pace?
Replies: 5
Views: 6538

Re: Opponent-adjusted pace?

isn't the easiest approach to use the 2 teams playing as the predictors and the # of possessions as the dependent and then just do a basic linear regression?

it would definitely be nice to have, but the gap between pace and opp-adj pace should be significantly less than it is for college
by sndesai1
Sun Oct 21, 2018 12:35 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2018-19 team win projection contest
Replies: 154
Views: 128905

Re: 2018-19 team win projection contest

tracking with a few others from twitter and elsewhere included as well - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1iPOzcrhgF-9FCfasdjQs8eKZZg9ZS84NhfIwFv_wPes/ the current projection is just something i threw together in a few mins and obviously not that meaningful. what are some good in-season projec...
by sndesai1
Wed Oct 17, 2018 5:21 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: New Site - CraftedNBA
Replies: 40
Views: 29323

Re: New Site - CraftedNBA

nice work

might be cool to create custom blends

on team pages, i find the player pictures not too useful and the huge amount of padding on the player rows makes it hard to see much at once. it would be nice to see at least 10 player's stats without scrolling
by sndesai1
Fri Oct 12, 2018 10:44 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Using Analytics to Bet on Games
Replies: 2
Views: 4793

Re: Using Analytics to Bet on Games

will guo wrote a solid article re:betting on nylon calculus - https://fansided.com/2015/04/10/freelance-friday-setting-the-record-straight-on-basketball-betting/ betting on individual nba game outcomes is not likely to be a profitable endeavor for the vast majority of people, even those that are wel...
by sndesai1
Sun Sep 30, 2018 6:26 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2018-19 team win projection contest
Replies: 154
Views: 128905

Re: 2018-19 team win projection contest

Code: Select all

ATL	23
BOS	56
BRK	31
CHA	39
CHI	25
CLE	35
DAL	32
DEN	50
DET	39
GSW	66
HOU	57
IND	44
LAC	35
LAL	45
MEM	34
MIA	41
MIL	45
MIN	41
NOP	45
NYK	24
OKC	49
ORL	30
PHI	54
PHO	24
POR	40
SAC	24
SAS	42
TOR	61
UTA	53
WAS	46
edited 10/15 for no butler trade and additional spurs injuries
by sndesai1
Fri Aug 10, 2018 7:24 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: IF Nets want to max next season wins...
Replies: 6
Views: 4492

Re: IF Nets want to max next season wins...

i don't really see dink lineups performing worse than non-dink lineups as proof that a coach shouldn't experiment. in fact, it seems like they recognize a lineup isn't providing much and so they play it sparingly and try something else. without increasing the # of minutes your best players play, how...
by sndesai1
Wed Aug 08, 2018 5:11 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Poll: RPM's degree of efficacy in sorting players
Replies: 138
Views: 101204

Re: Poll: RPM's degree of efficacy in sorting players

if a market is large enough, those two concepts ("prediction", balancing sides) should lead to a very similar point, at least at the books that don't restrict bettors

nba win totals have pretty small limits everywhere though, so it often doesn't
by sndesai1
Sat Aug 04, 2018 12:21 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: IF Nets want to max next season wins...
Replies: 6
Views: 4492

Re: IF Nets want to max next season wins...

why is it necessarily a bad thing to use "dink" lineups?

i've seen you harp on that a lot, but i don't instantly see why it's a bad thing.

it may be that i just don't know what that term actually means