2026 MVP Tracker

[Mike G]

Another way-too-early to be meaningful thread, but someday it could have meaning.

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Prob%   M-V-P !       tm    PER   WS/48   BPM
.390   Luka Doncic   Dal   43.4   .435   16.2
.341   V Wembanyama  SAS   43.5   .489   16.1
.100   Giannis A     Mil   43.0   .425   15.0
.099   Shai G-A      OKC   33.1   .321    9.7
.044  Austin Reaves  LAL   35.0   .393   11.0

.015   Tyrese Maxey  Phl   25.4   .259    6.9
.004  Chet Holmgren  OKC   25.4   .274    4.5
.004  Nikola Vucevic Chi   23.1   .264    5.6
.002   LaMelo Ball   Cha   28.0   .291    7.8
.001  Stephen Curry  GSW   34.2   .281   12.1 

https://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/mvp.html
No Nuggets!?!

[Mike G]

Next In Line shown below.

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Prob   M!V!P!  tm     W%   PER   WS/48   BPM
.481   Wemby   SAS  1.00   36.9  .406   13.1
.363  Giannis  Mil   .80   41.9  .418   15.6
.068   Shai    OKC  1.00   29.8  .279    9.2
.036   Maxey   Phl   .80   25.6  .240    6.7
.022   Jokic   Den   .60   29.5  .340   12.9

.010   Reaves  LAL   .67   28.0  .269    6.5
.009  Vucevic  Chi  1.00   23.8  .244    6.1
.007  Holmgren OKC  1.00   23.8  .255    5.7
.003   Giddey  Chi  1.00   21.0  .162    3.3
.001 K Johnson SAS  1.00   21.2  .301    3.3

Prob   M!V!P!  tm     W%   PER   WS/48   BPM
---    Doncic  LAL   .67   38.1  .347   14.0
---    Curry   GSW   .67   26.1  .222    8.2
---  Markkanen Uta   .40   26.8  .261    7.8
---    Sengun  Hou   .50   24.2  .232    7.4
---    Randle  Min   .40   25.9  .224    7.0

Keldon Johnson is shooting .740 TS% with 12 pts and 6 reb. in 24 mpg off the bench.
Team Win% is quite a factor right now.

[Crow]

Doncic is with LAL.

10-15 names gives clues of possible future candidates but the current season contest is probably between 5-6 guys.

[Mike G]

Doncic is with LAL.

What? Nobody tells me anything.
Most of these guys will be long gone once their teams have lost a game or two.
I'm curious why Steph isn't top 10. Same win% and surely better than Reaves; or almost as good.

I just like recording this stuff that will seem like ancient history in a few months.
One or more of the Big Five will likely break something.

[Crow]

Wemby seems destined to win one, sooner or later. Doncic probably still is but might be less likely.

Next most likely new guy...
Maxey? I dunno. Sengun likely to compete for it.

[Mike G]

The usual suspects...

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Prob   player    tm    W%    PER   WS/48   BPM
.437   Shai     OKC  1.00   31.8   .328   11.1
.300   Jokic    Den   .67   32.0   .364   15.2
.094   Giannis  Mil   .63   39.2   .375   13.9
.052   Wemby    SAS   .83   30.7   .290    8.2
.052   Maxey    Phl   .71   25.3   .244    7.3
.030   Reaves   LAL   .75   26.4   .242    6.3
.015   Giddey   Chi   .86   22.6   .178    4.8
.009   Vucevic  Chi   .86   23.4   .227    5.4
.006 Hart'stein OKC  1.00   19.1   .222    2.2
.005   Sengun   Hou   .67   21.9   .214    5.9

other   player   tm    W%    PER   WS/48   BPM
---    Doncic   Dal   .29   34.1   .293   11.6
---    Randle   Min   .57   26.2   .244    7.6
---   Markkanen Uta   .43   23.9   .202    5.8
---    Duren    Det   .71   26.1   .244    3.2
---    Leonard  LAC   .43   25.2   .183    4.9

"other" = top 10 in BPM or PER

UPDATE one day later:

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Prob    MVP     tm   W%    PER   WS/48   BPM
.708   Jokic   Den  .71   34.0   .392   17.1
.145   Shai    OKC  .89   30.8   .315   10.4
.074  Giannis  Mil  .63   39.3   .376   14.0
.029   Reaves  LAL  .78   26.5   .242    6.4
.012   Giddey  Chi  .86   22.6   .179    5.0

.011   Maxey   Phl  .63   24.7   .223    6.7
.007  Vucevic  Che  .86   23.4   .228    5.6
.007   Wemby   SAS  .71   27.8   .244    6.2
.005   Sengun  Hou  .71   21.5   .200    5.5
.002  Hart'ein OKC  .89   18.6   .211    1.9

[Mike G]

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/679585 ... l-share-ta

John Hollinger:

"Luka. SGA. Joker. Giannis.

Whatever name you use, they are the four best players in the NBA. That seemed clear enough as the season was about to begin, but the events of the first three weeks have only furthered the idea that these four guys are on one level and everyone else is on another."

[Mike G]

In season PER, WS/48, and BPM, there are 5 players who rank top 10 in all 3.
Six others (in no particular order) are top ten in 2 of the 3.

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mvp?     eFG%   Reb   Ast  St+Bk   Pts   TS%   PER   WS/48  BPM
Jokic    .740  13.1  10.9   2.5   28.8  .773   39.3  .467  20.8
Shai     .571   5.2   6.6   2.3   32.5  .644   32.1  .352  12.5
Giannis  .650  11.5   7.3   2.3   32.6  .660   34.9  .295  11.3
Doncic   .543   8.9   9.2   2.2   33.7  .601   28.1  .211   9.2
Randle   .603   7.5   6.1   1.6   25.4  .662   25.7  .247   6.9

Mitchell .599   4.5   5.5   2.0   30.5  .650   24.9  .193   7.7
Sengun   .553  10.2   7.4   2.3   22.1  .599   23.1  .222   6.8
Duren    .647  12.0   1.6   2.3   19.4  .705   26.4  .263   4.0
Wemby    .548  12.9   4.0   4.7   26.2  .609   25.8  .208   6.1
Curry    .588   3.5   3.7   2.0   29.1  .648   25.2  .184   7.3
Edwards  .599   4.1   3.4   1.4   27.5  .649   25.7  .194   6.1

Just missing are Jimmy Butler and Jalen Johnson.

[Crow]

Nuggets with Jokic on court, almost +21 / 100p. SGA +16ish, Giannis A. +10, Doncic +3.

Nuggets don't face Thunder til Feb. 1.

[Mike G]

EDIT: Updates as of Apr 7, 2026 are like [this]. 3-4 remaining games per team.
Progressive best-ever stats:

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PER    year    player
26.0   1955   Neil Johnston
27.4   1956   Bob Pettit
28.3   1957   Pettit
32.1   1962   Wilt Chamberlain
32.8   2022   Nikola Jokic
38.3 * 2026   Jokic [32.2]

WS/48  year    player
.282   1955   Larry Foust
.286   1962   Wilt Chamberlain
.325   1964   Wilt
.326   1971   Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
.340   1972   Kareem
.449 * 2026   Nikola Jokic [.312 -- Shai .327]

BPM    year    player
7.53   1974   Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
7.64   1975   Kareem
8.54   1976   Kareem
9.38   1977   Kareem
10.80  1987   Michael Jordan
12.96  1988   Jordan
13.24  2009   LeBron James
13.72  2022   Nikola Jokic
20.2 * 2026   Jokic [14.1]

* - thru 1/6 of a season
A recurring theme, again in the alltime top 10 seasons for these stats:

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PER    year    player
38.3 * 2026   Nikola Jokic [32.2]
34.8 * 2026   Giannis Antetokounmpo [32.7]
32.9 * 2026   Shai Gilgeous-Alexander [31.0]
32.8   2022   Jokic
32.1   1962   Wilt Chamberlain
32.0   2022   Giannis
32.0   2025   Jokic
31.9   2020   Giannis
31.8   1963   Wilt
31.7   1988   Michael Jordan

WS/48  year    player
.449 * 2026   Nikola Jokic [.312]
.366 * 2026   Shai Gilgeous-Alexander [.327]
.340   1972   Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
.326   1971   Kareem
.325   1964   Wilt Chamberlain
.323   1973   Kareem
.322   2013   LeBron James
.321   1991   Michael Jordan
.318   2009   LeBron
.318   2016   Stephen Curry

BPM    year    player
20.2 * 2026   Nikola Jokic [14.1]
13.7   2022   Jokic
13.3   2025   Jokic
13.2   2009   LeBron James
13.2   2024   Jokic
13.2 * 2026   Shai Gilgeous-Alexander [11.8]
13.0   2023   Jokic
13.0   1988   Michael Jordan
12.1   2021   Jokic
12.0   1991   Jordan 

[Giannis' 1079 minutes in 36 games are well short of 'qualifying', but his season 32.7 PER is one of the 2 best ever, if allowed.]
EDIT : Joel Embiid, the year after his MVP season, posted PER of 34.1 in 1309 min./ 39 G.

[Mike G]

Jokic carried a 90%+ chance of taking MVP for a week or 2, and now it's daily becoming more like a race.

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Prob   m-v-p    tm   W%    PER    WS  WS/48  BPM  VORP
.559   Jokic   Den  .71   35.4   5.9  .389  16.9   3.5
.377   Shai    OKC  .96   33.1   5.9  .382  13.1   2.8
.041   Luka    LAL  .75   29.3   2.9  .234   9.5   1.7
.006   Reaves  LAL  .75   24.2   2.9  .220   5.3   1.1
.005   Sengun  Hou  .74   22.7   3.0  .208   6.6   1.5

.003   Cade C  Det  .77   21.4   2.2  .151   4.7   1.2
.003  I. Hart. OKC  .96   21.1   2.7  .248   4.2    .8
.002   Maxey   Phl  .55   24.0   3.3  .199   6.8   1.8
.002  Holmgren OKC  .96   19.8   2.2  .194   2.7    .6
.002   Duren   Det  .77   24.9   2.8  .239   3.1    .7

Prob   m-v-p    tm   W%    PER    WS  WS/48  BPM  VORP
----  Giannis  Mil  .44   34.9   2.9  .281  10.9   1.6
----   Wemby   SAS  .71   25.7   1.6  .187   6.6    .9
----  Mitchell Cle  .57   24.4   2.7  .182   6.5   1.6
----   Butler  GSW  .50   24.2   3.4  .261   6.5   1.3
----  Bridges  NYK  .67   19.7   3.2  .207   6.4   1.6

----   Harden  LAC  .27   23.5   2.4  .156   5.5   1.4
----   Avdija  Por  .41   21.0   2.5  .161   4.9   1.3

Joker started slow but then went on a tear for the ages. Shai has belatedly started to catch up, and is close or dead even in some stats.
BPM gets my vote as most meaningful here, and we can grab "game BPM" from the Advanced Game Logs at b-r.com
A bpm-game is here defined as gBPM*min/48
Side by side log of Jokic and Shai bpmG, and 4-game and 8-game averages thru the game# in column 1.
(Parentheses indicate less than the full number -- 4 or 8 -- but still something to compare.)

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G   JbpmG  SbpmG      Jx4    Sx4      Jx8     Sx8
1   -1.4    6.2                  
2   10.2   13.3      (4.4    9.8)         
3   15.9   11.6      (8.2   10.4)         
4   10.6    3.5       8.8    8.7         
5   13.6    6.7      12.6    8.8     ( 9.8    8.3)
6   19.7    8.0      14.9    7.5     (11.4    8.2)
7   22.3    3.6      16.6    5.5     (13.0    7.6)
8   12.9   15.4      17.1    8.4      13.0    8.5
9   14.3    3.6      17.3    7.7      14.9    8.2
10  17.0    6.3      16.6    7.2      15.8    7.3
11  25.1   13.5      17.3    9.7      16.9    7.6
12  10.2   12.1      16.6    8.9      16.9    8.7
13  12.1   12.2      16.1   11.0      16.7    9.3
14   1.8   14.8      12.3   13.1      14.5   10.2
15  13.2   10.3       9.3   12.3      13.3   11.0
16  12.7    5.1       9.9   10.6      13.3    9.7
17  14.2    6.4      10.5    9.1      13.3   10.1
18   5.9   15.0      11.5    9.2      11.9   11.2
19  11.6   16.7      11.1   10.8      10.2   11.6
20  10.8    8.6      10.6   11.6      10.3   11.1
21   4.8    1.1       8.3   10.3       9.4    9.7
22          8.2      (9.1)   8.6     (10.4)   8.9

https://www.basketball-reference.com/pl ... nced/2026/
Jokic has 4 bpmG better than any by Shai; the 8 best 4-game runs, and the 12 best 8-game stretches to date.

[Mike G]

Perhaps one of the last legit rankings, as the games threshold chokes off some leaders.
In addition to the b-r.com list of 10, another 20 who are better in VORP or WS or both.

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Prob%   mvp?     tm   W%   min   TS%   PER   WS/48  BPM   e484
.744   Jokic    Den  .69  1087  .713   35.5  .377  16.4   3.52
.219   Shai     OKC  .85  1033  .678   32.4  .359  12.8   3.34
.014   Doncic   LAL  .67   834  .607   27.8  .194   8.0   2.68
.008 Cunningham Det  .75  1038  .570   22.1  .175   6.0   2.17
.004   Brunson  NYK  .72   993  .597   22.5  .189   3.6   1.97

.003   Sengun   Hou  .67   926  .573   22.3  .181   5.7   2.06
.002   Towns    NYK  .72   953  .611   21.8  .190   2.6   2.08
.002   Reaves   LAL  .67   812  .666   23.1  .187   4.2   1.87
.002   Murray   Den  .69  1054  .621   21.8  .169   3.4   1.85
.002  Holmgren  OKC  .85   776  .668   20.9  .206   3.0   2.00

Prob%   mvp?     tm   W%   min   TS%   PER   WS/48  BPM   e484
----   Maxey    Phl  .53  1111  .596   22.3  .172   6.2   1.98
----  Mitchell  Cle  .53  1017  .626   23.3  .164   5.8   2.16
----  J Johnson Atl  .44  1063  .618   22.6  .165   5.1   2.09
----   Bridges  NYK  .72  1094  .626   17.6  .170   4.4   1.30
----   Avdija   Por  .42  1124  .612   20.2  .147   4.2   1.78

----   Giannis  Mil  .42   520  .673   35.1  .281  11.0   3.43
----   Edwards  Min  .64   879  .628   22.6  .162   5.6   2.06
----   Harden   LAC  .32  1039  .621   22.4  .154   4.6   1.89
----   Butler   GSW  .52   885  .646   22.8  .242   5.3   1.92
----   Barnes   Tor  .59  1124  .583   19.4  .139   3.7   1.75

Prob%   mvp?     tm   W%   min   TS%   PER   WS/48  BPM   e484
----   Kawhi    LAC  .32   712  .624   26.2  .182   6.8   2.28
----   J Brown  Bos  .61   981  .598   23.9  .151   4.3   2.26
----  M Porter  Brk  .33   821  .629   22.0  .139   5.2   2.07
----   Curry    GSW  .52   738  .636   23.1  .160   6.1   2.27
----   Wemby    SAS  .72   574  .618   27.0  .200   8.1   2.74

----   Randle   Min  .64  1086  .598   20.5  .176   3.4   1.81
----   Durant   Hou  .67   973  .646   20.8  .186   3.8   1.74
----   Gobert   Min  .64  1048  .687   17.5  .184   0.9   1.33
----   Duren    Det  .75   835  .671   23.7  .220   2.6   2.19
----   Ware     Mia  .54   820  .662   21.5  .209   3.2   1.80

[Mike G]

Joker has played 32 games and leads the league in Win Shares and in VORP.
If we just double his totals, he has an alltime top-10 VORP season and does not win MVP due to <65 games.
He was on pace to have the highest-ever totals in both stats when projected to 79 games.
Best VORP seasons ever:

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player   year  status  G    WS    VORP
Jokic    2026   >->   32    8.7    5.1
Jokic*2  2026   -->   64   17.4   10.2
Jokic2+  2026   >--   79   21.5   12.6

Jordan   1988   MVP   82   21.2   12.5
LeBron   2009   MVP   81   20.3   11.8
Jordan   1989   1st   81   19.8   11.4
Jordan   1991   MVP   82   20.3   10.8
Jokic    2024   MVP   79   17.0   10.6
Jordan   1990   1st   82   19.0   10.6
Jordan   1987   1st   82   16.9   10.6
LeBron   2010   MVP   76   18.5   10.3
Jordan   1993   1st   78   17.2   10.2

Under 'status', the non-MVP's were 1st team all-NBA.
Jordan is not bad company on this list. Since 1974, 25 player-seasons w 17.5+ WS.
Only 6 seasons beat the 64-game line in both stats -- Jordan and LeBron in a lot more games.

[Mike G]

Looking like it could be a race, though perhaps not for good reasons.
Final column is need to play games needed to reach the stupid65games rule.

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prob    mvp?   tm   W%     PER    WS  WS/48   BPM  VORP ntp
.533   Jokic  Den  .606   32.8   12.7  .318  14.4   7.9 *10
.351   Shai   OKC  .786   31.4   13.5  .333  12.1   6.9   7
.051   Luka   LAL  .643   28.2    8.9  .206   9.4   6.0   7
.021   Cade   Det  .729   22.0    7.8  .180   6.5   4.5   4
.018   Wemby  SAS  .743   28.3    7.9  .236   9.6   4.7  10

.009   Duren  Det  .729   26.2    9.2  .265   4.8   2.8   5
.005 Holmgren SAS  .786   21.3    7.8  .213   3.8   2.6   5
.005   Brown  Bos  .671   22.4    6.4  .142   3.7   3.1   2
.004   Towns  NYK  .548   21.5    8.2  .192   2.7   2.5   0
.004  Brunson NYK  .548   20.1    7.8  .164   3.1   2.9   0

prob    mvp?   tm   W%     PER    WS  WS/48   BPM  VORP ntp
----   Maxey  Phl  .543   22.6    8.0  .164   5.9   4.6   4
----   Kawhi  LAC  .486   28.3    7.8  .214   8.3   4.5  11
---- Mitchell Cle  .614   23.1    7.3  .172   5.3   3.8   4
----  Durant  Hou  .609   20.8    8.7  .173   4.1   3.7   0
----  Edwards Min  .606   22.3    6.7  .156   4.9   3.6  *7

The extra 5 rank top 10 in vorp.
* means 11 games left on the schedule. All others have 12 games to meet their mark.

[Mike G]

Players ranked by their rankings in some 'advanced' stats, by best worst ranking.

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ranks: VORP BPM WS/48 WS  PER  AS
Jokic     1   1    2   2    1   *
Shai      2   2    1   1    2   *
Wemby     4   3    4   5    3   *
Doncic    3   4    9   6    5   *
Kawhi     5   5    5  10    4   *
J Murray 10  16   17   8   12   *
Duren    18   9    3   3    6   *
Durant    8  13   15   4   19   *
Spida    11   8   20  18    8   *
Cade      7   6   14  21   13   *

ranks: VORP BPM WS/48 WS  PER  AS
Sengun   13  12   21  20   16   *
Holmgren 26  19    7  12   18   *
Towns    27  28   10   9   15   *
Maxey     6   7   28  14   11   *
Brunson  22  27   23  13   29   *
Harden   15  18   30  24   20
Edwards  14  10   35  31   14   *
Clingan  35  31   11  17   22
Avdija   20  14   36  33   24   *
Jalen J   9  11   38  23   21   *

ranks: VORP BPM WS/48 WS  PER  AS
Amen     21  41   22   7   37
J Brown  16  20   43  29    9   *
Zion     40  29   27  44    7
Kon      19  21   26  16   47
Queta    49  43    6  15   31
S Barnes 12  17   52  26   33   *
Mamu     52  36   19  57   41
LaMelo   25  15   40  60   32
J Allen  63  32    8  35   10
Pritch'd 31  50   29  19   64

ranks: VORP BPM WS/48 WS  PER
Ware     67  53   16  49   27
Diabate  68  59   12  27   55
D White  17  22   60  30   74  
Giannis  23  (4)  (5) 75   (1)  *
Gobert   62  75   13  11   48
Mikal B  24  39   41  22  100
I Joe    78  48   18  70  103
Lauri    69  37   78 126   17

https://www.basketball-reference.com/le ... anced.html
Included are top 25 VORP, and top 20 in anything else, minutes >1400
A bunch of bigs slip in by virtue of WS and being big,