2026 MVP Tracker

[Mike G]

Another way too early to be meaningful thread, but someday you'll understand.

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Prob%   M-V-P !       tm    PER   WS/48   BPM
.390   Luka Doncic   Dal   43.4   .435   16.2
.341   V Wembanyama  SAS   43.5   .489   16.1
.100   Giannis A     Mil   43.0   .425   15.0
.099   Shai G-A      OKC   33.1   .321    9.7
.044  Austin Reaves  LAL   35.0   .393   11.0

.015   Tyrese Maxey  Phl   25.4   .259    6.9
.004  Chet Holmgren  OKC   25.4   .274    4.5
.004  Nikola Vucevic Chi   23.1   .264    5.6
.002   LaMelo Ball   Cha   28.0   .291    7.8
.001  Stephen Curry  GSW   34.2   .281   12.1 

https://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/mvp.html
Nobody from the Nuggets!?!

[Mike G]

Next In Line at bottom

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Prob   M!V!P!  tm     W%   PER   WS/48   BPM
.481   Wemby   SAS  1.00   36.9  .406   13.1
.363  Giannis  Mil   .80   41.9  .418   15.6
.068   Shai    OKC  1.00   29.8  .279    9.2
.036   Maxey   Phl   .80   25.6  .240    6.7
.022   Jokic   Den   .60   29.5  .340   12.9

.010   Reaves  LAL   .67   28.0  .269    6.5
.009  Vucevic  Chi  1.00   23.8  .244    6.1
.007  Holmgren OKC  1.00   23.8  .255    5.7
.003   Giddey  Chi  1.00   21.0  .162    3.3
.001 K Johnson SAS  1.00   21.2  .301    3.3

Prob   M!V!P!  tm     W%   PER   WS/48   BPM
---    Doncic  LAL   .67   38.1  .347   14.0
---    Curry   GSW   .67   26.1  .222    8.2
---  Markkanen Uta   .40   26.8  .261    7.8
---    Sengun  Hou   .50   24.2  .232    7.4
---    Randle  Min   .40   25.9  .224    7.0

Keldon Johnson is shooting .740 TS% with 12 pts and 6 reb. in 24 mpg off the bench.
Team Win% is quite a factor right now.

[Crow]

Doncic is with LAL.

10-15 names gives clues of possible future candidates but the current season contest is probably between 5-6 guys.

[Mike G]

Doncic is with LAL.

What? Nobody tells me anything.
Most of these guys will be long gone once their teams have lost a game or two.
I'm curious why Steph isn't top 10. Same win% and surely better than Reaves; or almost as good.

I just like recording this stuff that will seem like ancient history in a few months.
One or more of the Big Five will likely break something.

[Crow]

Wemby seems destined to win one, sooner or later. Doncic probably still is but might be less likely.

Next most likely new guy...
Maxey? I dunno. Sengun likely to compete for it.

[Mike G]

The usual suspects...

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Prob   player    tm    W%    PER   WS/48   BPM
.437   Shai     OKC  1.00   31.8   .328   11.1
.300   Jokic    Den   .67   32.0   .364   15.2
.094   Giannis  Mil   .63   39.2   .375   13.9
.052   Wemby    SAS   .83   30.7   .290    8.2
.052   Maxey    Phl   .71   25.3   .244    7.3
.030   Reaves   LAL   .75   26.4   .242    6.3
.015   Giddey   Chi   .86   22.6   .178    4.8
.009   Vucevic  Chi   .86   23.4   .227    5.4
.006 Hart'stein OKC  1.00   19.1   .222    2.2
.005   Sengun   Hou   .67   21.9   .214    5.9

other   player   tm    W%    PER   WS/48   BPM
---    Doncic   Dal   .29   34.1   .293   11.6
---    Randle   Min   .57   26.2   .244    7.6
---   Markkanen Uta   .43   23.9   .202    5.8
---    Duren    Det   .71   26.1   .244    3.2
---    Leonard  LAC   .43   25.2   .183    4.9

"other" = top 10 in BPM or PER

UPDATE one day later:

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Prob    MVP     tm   W%    PER   WS/48   BPM
.708   Jokic   Den  .71   34.0   .392   17.1
.145   Shai    OKC  .89   30.8   .315   10.4
.074  Giannis  Mil  .63   39.3   .376   14.0
.029   Reaves  LAL  .78   26.5   .242    6.4
.012   Giddey  Chi  .86   22.6   .179    5.0

.011   Maxey   Phl  .63   24.7   .223    6.7
.007  Vucevic  Che  .86   23.4   .228    5.6
.007   Wemby   SAS  .71   27.8   .244    6.2
.005   Sengun  Hou  .71   21.5   .200    5.5
.002  Hart'ein OKC  .89   18.6   .211    1.9

[Mike G]

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/679585 ... l-share-ta

John Hollinger:

Luka. SGA. Joker. Giannis.

Whatever name you use, they are the four best players in the NBA. That seemed clear enough as the season was about to begin, but the events of the first three weeks have only furthered the idea that these four guys are on one level and everyone else is on another.

[Mike G]

In season PER, WS/48, and BPM, there are 5 players who rank top 10 in all 3.
Six others (in no particular order) are top ten in 2 of the 3.

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mvp?     eFG%   Reb   Ast  St+Bk   Pts   TS%   PER   WS/48  BPM
Jokic    .740  13.1  10.9   2.5   28.8  .773   39.3  .467  20.8
Shai     .571   5.2   6.6   2.3   32.5  .644   32.1  .352  12.5
Giannis  .650  11.5   7.3   2.3   32.6  .660   34.9  .295  11.3
Doncic   .543   8.9   9.2   2.2   33.7  .601   28.1  .211   9.2
Randle   .603   7.5   6.1   1.6   25.4  .662   25.7  .247   6.9

Mitchell .599   4.5   5.5   2.0   30.5  .650   24.9  .193   7.7
Sengun   .553  10.2   7.4   2.3   22.1  .599   23.1  .222   6.8
Duren    .647  12.0   1.6   2.3   19.4  .705   26.4  .263   4.0
Wemby    .548  12.9   4.0   4.7   26.2  .609   25.8  .208   6.1
Curry    .588   3.5   3.7   2.0   29.1  .648   25.2  .184   7.3
Edwards  .599   4.1   3.4   1.4   27.5  .649   25.7  .194   6.1

Just missing are Jimmy Butler and Jalen Johnson.

[Crow]

Nuggets with Jokic on court, almost +21 / 100p. SGA +16ish, Giannis A. +10, Doncic +3.

Nuggets don't face Thunder til Feb. 1.

[Mike G]

Progressive best-ever stats:

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PER    year    player
26.0   1955   Neil Johnston
27.4   1956   Bob Pettit
28.3   1957   Pettit
32.1   1962   Wilt Chamberlain
32.8   2022   Nikola Jokic
38.3 * 2026   Jokic

WS/48  year    player
.282   1955   Larry Foust
.286   1962   Wilt Chamberlain
.325   1964   Wilt
.326   1971   Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
.340   1972   Kareem
.449 * 2026   Nikola Jokic

BPM    year    player
7.53   1974   Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
7.64   1975   Kareem
8.54   1976   Kareem
9.38   1977   Kareem
10.80  1987   Michael Jordan
12.96  1988   Jordan
13.24  2009   LeBron James
13.72  2022   Nikola Jokic
20.2 * 2026   Jokic

* - thru 1/6 of a season
A recurring theme, again in the alltime top 10 seasons for these stats:

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PER    year    player
38.3 * 2026   Nikola Jokic
34.8 * 2026   Giannis Antetokounmpo
32.9 * 2026   Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
32.8   2022   Jokic
32.1   1962   Wilt Chamberlain
32.0   2022   Giannis
32.0   2025   Jokic
31.9   2020   Giannis
31.8   1963   Wilt
31.7   1988   Michael Jordan

WS/48  year    player
.449 * 2026   Nikola Jokic
.366 * 2026   Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
.340   1972   Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
.326   1971   Kareem
.325   1964   Wilt Chamberlain
.323   1973   Kareem
.322   2013   LeBron James
.321   1991   Michael Jordan
.318   2009   LeBron
.318   2016   Stephen Curry

BPM    year    player
20.2 * 2026   Nikola Jokic
13.7   2022   Jokic
13.3   2025   Jokic
13.2   2009   LeBron James
13.2   2024   Jokic
13.2 * 2026   Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
13.0   2023   Jokic
13.0   1988   Michael Jordan
12.1   2021   Jokic
12.0   1991   Jordan 

[Mike G]

Jokic carried a 90% plus chance of taking MVP for a week or 2, and now it's daily becoming more like a race.

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Prob   m-v-p    tm   W%    PER    WS  WS/48  BPM  VORP
.559   Jokic   Den  .71   35.4   5.9  .389  16.9   3.5
.377   Shai    OKC  .96   33.1   5.9  .382  13.1   2.8
.041   Luka    LAL  .75   29.3   2.9  .234   9.5   1.7
.006   Reaves  LAL  .75   24.2   2.9  .220   5.3   1.1
.005   Sengun  Hou  .74   22.7   3.0  .208   6.6   1.5

.003   Cade C  Det  .77   21.4   2.2  .151   4.7   1.2
.003  I. Hart. OKC  .96   21.1   2.7  .248   4.2    .8
.002   Maxey   Phl  .55   24.0   3.3  .199   6.8   1.8
.002  Holmgren OKC  .96   19.8   2.2  .194   2.7    .6
.002   Duren   Det  .77   24.9   2.8  .239   3.1    .7

Prob   m-v-p    tm   W%    PER    WS  WS/48  BPM  VORP
----  Giannis  Mil  .44   34.9   2.9  .281  10.9   1.6
----   Wemby   SAS  .71   25.7   1.6  .187   6.6    .9
----  Mitchell Cle  .57   24.4   2.7  .182   6.5   1.6
----   Butler  GSW  .50   24.2   3.4  .261   6.5   1.3
----  Bridges  NYK  .67   19.7   3.2  .207   6.4   1.6

----   Harden  LAC  .27   23.5   2.4  .156   5.5   1.4
----   Avdija  Por  .41   21.0   2.5  .161   4.9   1.3

Joker started slow but then went on a tear for the ages. Shai has belatedly started to catch up, and is close or dead even in some stats.
BPM gets my vote as most meaningful here, and we can grab "game BPM" from the Advanced Game Logs at b-r.com
A bpm-game is here defined as gBPM*min/48
Side by side log of Jokic and Shai bpmG, and 4-game and 8-game averages thru the game# in column 1.
(Parentheses indicate less than the full number -- 4 or 8 -- but still something to compare.)

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G   JbpmG  SbpmG      Jx4    Sx4      Jx8     Sx8
1   -1.4    6.2                  
2   10.2   13.3      (4.4    9.8)         
3   15.9   11.6      (8.2   10.4)         
4   10.6    3.5       8.8    8.7         
5   13.6    6.7      12.6    8.8     ( 9.8    8.3)
6   19.7    8.0      14.9    7.5     (11.4    8.2)
7   22.3    3.6      16.6    5.5     (13.0    7.6)
8   12.9   15.4      17.1    8.4      13.0    8.5
9   14.3    3.6      17.3    7.7      14.9    8.2
10  17.0    6.3      16.6    7.2      15.8    7.3
11  25.1   13.5      17.3    9.7      16.9    7.6
12  10.2   12.1      16.6    8.9      16.9    8.7
13  12.1   12.2      16.1   11.0      16.7    9.3
14   1.8   14.8      12.3   13.1      14.5   10.2
15  13.2   10.3       9.3   12.3      13.3   11.0
16  12.7    5.1       9.9   10.6      13.3    9.7
17  14.2    6.4      10.5    9.1      13.3   10.1
18   5.9   15.0      11.5    9.2      11.9   11.2
19  11.6   16.7      11.1   10.8      10.2   11.6
20  10.8    8.6      10.6   11.6      10.3   11.1
21   4.8    1.1       8.3   10.3       9.4    9.7
22          8.2      (9.1)   8.6     (10.4)   8.9

https://www.basketball-reference.com/pl ... nced/2026/
Jokic has 4 gameBPM better than any by Shai; the 8 best 4-game runs, and the 12 best 8-game stretches to date.